Azerbaijan’s Strategic Pivot: Aliyev’s Growing Ties with China Amid Western Tensions

In a significant diplomatic move, Azerbaijan has signed a “Joint Declaration on Establishing Strategic Partnership Between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China” in Astana. This development marks a strategic pivot for Azerbaijan as it navigates complex international relations following the Second Karabakh War.

Post-war, Azerbaijan has encountered rising tensions with Western nations. Traditionally, Baku has balanced such tensions by aligning with Moscow. However, Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent international sanctions have made close relations with Moscow less advantageous for Azerbaijan. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-Armenian stance has not only cooled Paris-Baku relations but has also strained Azerbaijan’s ties with the European Union. President Ilham Aliyev recently highlighted this rift, stating that “several countries of the European Union have declared an unofficial ‘cold war’ against us.”

In this geopolitical context, Azerbaijan’s move to strengthen ties with China is noteworthy. The signing of strategic partnership documents and the implementation of a unilateral visa-free regime for Chinese citizens underscore Azerbaijan’s intent to deepen its relationship with Beijing. This shift is further reflected in the burgeoning trade between the two countries, which now stands at approximately $3 billion.

Benefits for Baku

  1. Economic Growth: Enhanced trade relations with China can lead to increased foreign investment and economic growth in Azerbaijan. The growing trade turnover between the two nations, currently at $3 billion, is a testament to this potential.
  2. Infrastructure Development: As a key supporter of the “Middle Corridor,” Azerbaijan stands to benefit from infrastructure investments that improve transportation and logistics capabilities, bolstering its role in transcontinental trade routes.
  3. Strategic Autonomy: By diversifying its international partnerships, Azerbaijan can reduce its dependency on traditional allies, thus enhancing its strategic autonomy and bargaining power on the global stage.
  4. Political Support: Aligning with China, a major global power, can provide Azerbaijan with a counterbalance to Western pressure and support in international forums.
  5. Tourism Boost: The introduction of a visa-free regime for Chinese citizens is likely to increase tourism from China, bringing economic benefits to Azerbaijan’s hospitality and service sectors.
  6. Energy Sector Collaboration: Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas, can explore new avenues of cooperation with China in the energy sector, potentially leading to joint ventures and technology transfers.
  7. Technology and Innovation: Strengthened ties with China can open doors for Azerbaijan to benefit from Chinese advancements in technology and innovation, fostering growth in sectors like telecommunications, IT, and renewable energy.

Aliyev’s China policy appears to be a calculated effort to diversify Azerbaijan’s international alliances and reduce dependency on any single geopolitical bloc. By fostering closer ties with China, Azerbaijan is not only seeking economic benefits but also aiming to enhance its strategic autonomy amid the evolving global political landscape.