Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu made headlines with his detention on Wednesday but he was as defiant as ever and confident of public support as his first statements moments before the detention indicated.
Yet, a stark future awaits him even if he can overcome his current legal troubles. With his university degree annulled on Tuesday in a separate investigation over his illegal transfer from a Cyprus university to Istanbul University, he appears to have lost his chance to run for the presidency.
Imamoğlu was set to win a primary by his Republican People’s Party (CHP) on Sunday where he is the only nominee for a presidential candidate to run in general elections. However, a presidential candidate is required to have a university degree for eligibility. Legal experts even point out that he may even have to serve in the army again as mandatory short-term conscription for university alumni will be annulled with the cancelation of his diploma.
Despite mounting evidence and testimonies from eyewitnesses in other investigations that point out Imamoğlu’s alleged wrongdoings, he maintains his innocence and will certainly appeal any prison term but will still remain in lengthy pre-trial detention as the offenses he faces are serious.
So, a release with judicial control may still give enough time for Imamoğlu to be nominated for presidential candidacy long before the scheduled 2028 elections but only if his other appeal to Istanbul University’s decision to revoke his diploma is approved.
The CHP threw its full support behind Imamoğlu, announcing mass demonstrations on Wednesday and a protest by lawmakers that led to a shutdown of Parliament. Yet, the party may not want to jeopardize its chance of beating main rival President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in general elections with a candidate with an uncertain future. Mansur Yavaş, a less charismatic mayor, is still favored over Imamoğlu as CHP’s presidential candidate, according to the polls. Yavaş opposed the CHP primary, saying it was too early to pick a candidate, apparently not having faith in CHP Chair Özgür Özel’s conviction that they may force the government into an early election. Yavaş may be the frontrunner for CHP’s presidential ambitions if Imamoğlu is eliminated from the race due to the diploma issue.
As for Imamoğlu’s municipal seat, legal experts say a trustee will likely be appointed in his place. Lawyer Zafer Işeri told Sabah newspaper that they don’t expect the election of a new mayor among members of the municipal assembly dominated by the CHP. Işeri pointed out that the detention was “not an arrest” and that Imamoğlu would remain mayor due to the principle of “innocent until proven guilty.”
“But it is highly likely that he will be arrested due to the gravity of the offenses he is accused of. He needs to be acquitted of all charges to return to his tenure as mayor. Still, he will face a lengthy trial process,” Işeri said on Wednesday.
