US Pushes for Peace Agreement Amidst Complex Compromises

On July 15, Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US State Department, highlighted Washington’s initiative to take a leading role in the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Miller acknowledged progress in the talks but stressed that any agreement will necessitate “complex choices and difficult compromises” from both parties.

What could these “difficult compromises” entail, and what might Washington be asking from Baku?

One significant issue is the return of “Karabakh Armenians.” Although their return seems unlikely in the near term, Baku is open to Armenians living under Azerbaijani citizenship and is pushing for the return of Western Azerbaijanis to Armenia . This issue appears more as a political tool to pressure Azerbaijan and bolster Armenia’s position rather than a feasible solution.

Another potential compromise involves border delimitation. Washington may seek to incorporate terms related to this in the peace agreement, potentially aligning with Armenia’s preference to use the “Almaty Declaration,” which relies on Soviet-era borders. This could bring up the issue of troop withdrawal from the border. Azerbaijan maintains that border delimitation should be a separate, long-term process post-agreement, and troop withdrawal is not currently on the table.

Additionally, the US might pressure Azerbaijan to drop its demand for “unimpeded transit to Nakhchivan” and agree to open communications in a manner favorable to Armenian interests. The US plan includes such provisions for the Middle Corridor, but Baku is unlikely to agree, which could render the US proposal ineffective.

These “difficult compromises” are arguably more relevant to Armenia:

  • Granting “unimpeded transit to Nakhchivan” in opening communications.
  • Removing legal claims against Azerbaijan from constitutional and other legal documents.

The peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, started after the Second Karabakh War, have been complex and fraught with challenges. Washington’s role aims to facilitate progress, but the likelihood of achieving a comprehensive resolution remains uncertain.