Former Defense Minister of Armenia on Reasons Behind the 2020 War and Missed Opportunities
In an interview with “Izvestiya,” former Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan discussed the factors that led to Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. He emphasized that demographic and military disparities between Armenia and Azerbaijan were clear indicators of the eventual outcome.
Karapetyan noted, “In the 1990s, Armenia and Azerbaijan’s demographic figures were somewhat comparable. Armenia’s population was nearing 4 million, while Azerbaijan’s was around 6 million. Thanks to the Soviet-era Armenian officers, we were able to organize more quickly, which contributed to our victory then.”
However, over the past three decades, the situation changed drastically. “Thirty years later, Armenia’s population dwindled to 2.5 million, while Azerbaijan’s grew to 10 million. Their military force, including reservists, increased from 150,000 to 800,000. Azerbaijan also achieved significant superiority in terms of weaponry and equipment. The budget and armed forces were incomparable. Under such conditions, the prospects were quite clear. Moreover, periodic issues were already emerging along the contact line. On July 12, 2020, skirmishes occurred over a position between our countries. After that, I informed [Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan that I believed Azerbaijan had made a political decision to launch large-scale military operations within one to one and a half months.”
Karapetyan revealed that he had proposed seeking assistance from Russia in the face of the impending threat. “Personally, I advocated for seeking help from our main ally, Russia. Unfortunately, this suggestion was not heeded. The tragedy was that the ruling leadership, including Pashinyan, had a very poor understanding of the needs and demands of the Armed Forces. Most of them, including Pashinyan, had never served in the military. They somehow believed that if war broke out, only the Ministry of Defense would be responsible for military operations. Meanwhile, the Azerbaijanis approached it differently. For them, if war broke out, the entire country would fight. In 2020, as soon as the conflict began, they immediately established a headquarters, and the country’s president took on the role of Supreme Commander, visibly accountable for the outcome.”
The former minister also claimed that he sought to replicate the level of cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan with a similar partnership between Russia and Armenia. “I unequivocally supported strengthening our defense capabilities by appealing to Russia. I served as defense minister for four months in 2021. During this time, I made several trips to Moscow, and we considered an extensive cooperation program. Consequently, based on our request, a team of high-ranking Russian officers and generals, led by the Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff, studied the 2020 war experience and created a comprehensive document on the reforms needed for the Armenian Armed Forces. Russian weapons were to be delivered to us as soon as possible. Moreover, Russian advisors were to come and assist with training our forces.
If this program had been implemented, the unity between Russia and Armenia would have begun to resemble the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey. For context, Turkish advisors work at the battalion level and even reach the level of defense minister within the Azerbaijani Army. We aimed to establish a similar system here. The initial delivery of weapons had already taken place, and the lists of Russian officers set to assist us were ready. Unfortunately, I was removed from my position, and all these plans fell through,” Karapetyan lamented.
Arshak Karapetyan, who served as Armenia’s defense minister from July to November 2021, has been a notable figure in Armenia’s military and political landscape. Before his tenure as defense minister, he held various positions within the Armenian Armed Forces and the National Security Service. His brief tenure as defense minister was marked by efforts to reform and strengthen Armenia’s military capabilities, although his removal from office curtailed these initiatives. Karapetyan remains a vocal advocate for stronger military cooperation with Russia and continues to critique the decisions leading up to and during the 2020 conflict.
