In a move that could severely destabilize regional dynamics, Iran and Armenia have reportedly signed a secret arms deal worth $500 million, sources have claimed to Iran International. This alleged agreement, which includes supplying Armenia with Iran’s notorious suicide drones and advanced air defense systems, is expected to provoke a strong reaction from Azerbaijan.
The conflict-ridden region has seen Armenia and Azerbaijan engage in two major wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the most recent flare-up in 2020 resulting in Azerbaijan regaining significant territory, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Iran has consistently voiced its opposition to any changes in the international borders of the area.
The confidential agreement, purportedly signed in the past few months, encompasses various military items such as the Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, and Mohajer drones, along with missile systems like the 3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and Arman. This revelation, if confirmed, marks the largest arms deal between the two countries to date.
Iran International’s source, a senior military official in the Middle East, stated that the arms deal includes more than just weapon supplies. It involves extensive intelligence cooperation, military training, and the establishment of bases in Armenia. Neither the Iranian nor the Armenian defense ministries have commented on the report.
Farzin Nadimi, an arms expert from the Washington Institute, described the deal as unprecedented in scale for Armenia, noting, “Iran has sold Armenia drones and other arms before, but nothing at this scale.”
Armenia’s defense budget for 2024 has surged by 81% compared to 2020, reaching approximately $1.4 billion. Analysts are puzzled over how Armenia plans to finance such a significant deal, with some suggesting loan payments as a possible solution.
The potential ramifications of this claimed deal on Iran-Azerbaijan relations are profound. Azerbaijan, a key ally of Israel and a significant purchaser of Israeli arms, is likely to view this development as a direct threat. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute highlighted Armenia’s efforts to match Azerbaijan’s military capabilities, particularly in drone warfare, which played a crucial role in Azerbaijan’s 2020 victory.
Iran’s motivations appear multifaceted. The deal could serve as a counterbalance to Azerbaijan’s strategic alliance with Israel, signaling Tehran’s dissatisfaction with Baku’s foreign policy choices. Nadimi emphasized, “Azerbaijan will be very, very angry about this deal. But Iran wants to show its dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan because of its close ties with Israel.”
Complicating matters further, Armenian analysts, who remain skeptical about the deal’s existence, suggest that Armenia is unlikely to risk its burgeoning relations with Western nations by engaging in large-scale arms transactions with Iran, fearing sanctions and diplomatic fallout.
Frederic Labarre, a military expert from the Royal Military College of Canada, proposed an additional layer of complexity, speculating that the deal might serve as a conduit for Russia to acquire arms through Armenia, given the current geopolitical climate.
The potential confirmation of this arms deal poses a significant threat to the fragile stability in the Caucasus region. Should the agreement be verified, it could lead to a severe deterioration in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, reshaping regional alliances and impacting international diplomatic efforts to maintain peace and security in the area.
