India-Armenia Military Cooperation Grows Amid Tense Geopolitical Climate in South Caucasus
India and Armenia have markedly intensified their military cooperation, with Armenia emerging as the largest importer of Indian weapons. This development is overlapping with South Caucasus region’s volatile geopolitical environment, particularly following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
According to the Indian Finance Ministry, Armenia’s contracts with Indian arms manufacturers have totaled $600 million over the past few years. These deals include the procurement of Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems and Akash anti-aircraft systems, making Armenia a key customer of India’s burgeoning defense industry.
Reports from the Indian Aerospace Defense News (IADN) publication indicate that as of the beginning of the 2024-25 financial year, Armenia’s total weapons purchases from India reached $600 million. This arms trade includes not only Pinaka systems but also Indian-made howitzers, anti-tank rockets, and anti-drone equipment. Last September, an Indian defense publication noted that Armenia is set to receive 90 ATAGS howitzers over three years, with six already delivered.
In May 2023, Armenian and Indian military officials convened in Yerevan for the first Indian-Armenian “defense consultations.” These talks led to the establishment of a working group focused on joint actions for 2024 and 2025, encompassing arms supplies, military education, tactical training, and experience sharing.
Armenia’s pivot towards Indian defense suppliers is partly driven by its growing tensions with Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has strained Russia’s capacity to supply military hardware. Traditionally reliant on Russian arms, Armenia has sought alternative sources, also signing deals with French companies since October 2023.
India’s defense industry has seen unprecedented growth in the 2023-24 financial year, a 25% increase from the previous year. The Economic Survey 2023-24, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, highlights this growth, noting a 12-fold increase in exports since the 2016-17 financial year.
India’s defense production has surged from $8.8 billion in 2017 to nearly $12 billion in 2023, securing India’s position among the top 25 arms exporters. This growth is attributed to policy initiatives aimed at streamlining export procedures, fostering domestic defense equipment development, and providing financial support to private manufacturers.
Despite its rise as an arms exporter, India remains the world’s largest arms importer, with Russia as its primary supplier in recent years. However, the increased defense exports signal India’s strategic shift towards self-reliance and greater participation in the global arms market.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has a long-standing military cooperation with Pakistan, with both countries sharing close defense ties that have strengthened over decades. Pakistan, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, supported it politically during the 2020 Second Karabakh War against Armenia. This military cooperation includes joint training exercises, arms sales, and technology transfers, further solidifying their strategic partnership.
India’s entry into the South Caucasus region as a significant arms supplier introduces a new dynamic in the fragile Armenia-Azerbaijan relations post-war. Armenia’s acquisition of advanced Indian weaponry could potentially alter the regional military balance, heightening tensions between the two countries. The strengthening of Armenia’s defense capabilities may force a response from Azerbaijan and its ally Pakistan, potentially escalating an already delicate situation.
Although India politically and militarily supports Armenia, Azerbaijan remains New Delhi’s largest trade partner in the region. India is among the top five buyers of Azerbaijan’s oil, with bilateral trade turnover fluctuating between $500 million and $1 billion in recent years, even surpassing $1 billion in 2022. The trade balance favors Azerbaijan, largely due to its significant crude oil exports to India.
Despite these economic dynamics, India risks its economic benefits from Baku by arming Armenia against Azerbaijan. This provocative stance could damage economic cooperation with Baku, and Prime Minister Modi’s government must carefully consider these implications.
This burgeoning India-Armenia military partnership underscores the shifting alliances and strategic recalibrations in response to regional conflicts and global geopolitical trends, particularly in the South Caucasus. As India establishes its presence in the region, the evolving military alliances could have far-reaching implications for the peace and stability of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
