Can Jordan and Egypt Resist Trump’s Gaza Plan? How Far Can U.S. Pressure Go?
President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Jordan and Egypt to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza, but both countries are resisting, warning that forced displacement would destabilize the region. While Trump has tools to pressure them—economic aid, military assistance, and diplomatic leverage—both nations are deeply entrenched in their opposition. The longer this standoff lasts, the greater the risk of regional escalation, including new ISIS activity and even potential war with Israel.
Jordan: The King’s Dilemma
Jordan’s King Abdullah II has been among the most vocal opponents of Trump’s plan. In a recent statement, he called the forced relocation of Palestinians a “war crime” and warned that Jordan would not serve as an alternative homeland for Gaza’s population. His government fears that an influx of Palestinian refugees would not only destabilize Jordan but also weaken Palestinian claims to statehood.
Jordan already hosts over two million registered Palestinian refugees, and another wave of displacement could shift the country’s fragile demographic balance. Given that the majority of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian origin, the monarchy also fears that the move could ignite internal unrest, threatening the Hashemite regime.
Despite this, Jordan is highly dependent on U.S. financial aid—receiving over $1.45 billion annually—and relies on Washington for military assistance. If Trump threatens to cut off funding or halt security cooperation, King Abdullah will face enormous pressure.
Egypt: Sisi’s Red Line
Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza through the Rafah crossing, has also taken a firm stand. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has warned that any forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai could turn the region into a launching ground for new conflicts. Egyptian officials worry that Hamas militants or other radical groups could blend in with refugees, leading to a long-term security nightmare.
The Egyptian government already struggles with insurgents linked to ISIS in northern Sinai. If hundreds of thousands of desperate Gazans are pushed into the desert region, terrorist groups could exploit the chaos, using it as a new recruitment base. This is why Egypt has so far refused to open its border to fleeing Palestinians beyond limited humanitarian aid deliveries.
Egypt receives around $1.3 billion in U.S. military assistance annually, second only to Israel. Trump could threaten to suspend or reduce this aid, but Cairo has alternatives—its growing ties with Russia and China suggest that it may not be entirely dependent on Washington’s goodwill.
Could ISIS Exploit the Crisis?
If Gaza’s population is forcibly displaced, ISIS and other extremist groups could use the chaos to rebuild their networks.
Sinai Insurgency: Egypt has struggled to contain ISIS-affiliated militants in northern Sinai. A massive influx of displaced Palestinians could provide these groups with new recruits.
Radicalization in Jordan: With growing resentment among Jordan’s Palestinian population, extremists could find new opportunities to exploit anti-government sentiments.
Attacks on Israel: A refugee crisis could lead to more cross-border violence, potentially pulling Israel into a prolonged conflict with militant groups.
Could the U.S. Use ISIS or Revolution Tactics Against Jordan and Egypt?
If Jordan and Egypt continue to resist Trump’s plan, Washington has more covert tools beyond economic and military pressure. In the past, the U.S. has been accused of using insurgency groups and revolutionary movements to destabilize governments that oppose its policies. While no concrete evidence suggests the Trump administration is actively considering this, historical patterns show that these tactics have been used in the region before.
Reviving ISIS as a Pressure Tool?
ISIS was largely weakened after its territorial defeat, but remnants of the group still operate in Syria, Iraq, and northern Sinai. There are concerns that the U.S. could exploit these elements to destabilize Egypt and Jordan if their governments refuse to cooperate on Gaza’s displacement.
Sinai as a New Warzone: If Egypt continues to resist U.S. demands, an increase in ISIS attacks in Sinai could force Cairo to shift focus from diplomacy to internal security. The U.S. could justify reducing aid by arguing that Egypt has failed to control terrorism.
Radicalization in Jordan: Jordan has long been a key U.S. ally, but if tensions rise, extremism could be used as a pressure point. The kingdom has already seen jihadist activity, and unrest within its Palestinian population could provide an opportunity for terrorist groups to expand.
Controlled Chaos: A resurgence of ISIS-linked attacks could weaken both governments, making them more vulnerable to external pressure. If Jordan and Egypt are forced to deal with internal security crises, they may have less capacity to resist Trump’s demands.
A New Arab Spring or Muslim Brotherhood Uprising?
The U.S. has been accused of supporting regime change movements when governments become obstacles to its strategic goals. The Arab Spring, which toppled governments in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, was at least partially fueled by external influence. If the Trump administration wants to pressure Jordan and Egypt, it could consider:
Encouraging Protests: Economic hardship and political dissatisfaction already exist in both countries. If anti-government protests emerge, the U.S. could amplify them through diplomatic channels, media, and covert support.
Empowering the Muslim Brotherhood: In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood—Sisi’s main political enemy—could be used as a tool for disruption. The group ruled Egypt briefly after the 2011 revolution before being removed by Sisi in 2013. If unrest against Sisi gains momentum, Washington could signal support for opposition forces, creating a major crisis for his government.
Political Isolation: If King Abdullah or President Sisi refuse to cooperate, Washington could shift its stance on their leadership, subtly backing opposition movements while cutting off diplomatic and financial lifelines.
What Are the Risks?
Using insurgency or revolutionary tactics is a high-risk strategy. If Jordan or Egypt collapse into instability, the entire region could be thrown into chaos. Additionally, if either country perceives U.S. involvement in destabilization efforts, they could move closer to rival powers like China, Russia, or Iran.
For now, Trump’s administration seems focused on economic and diplomatic pressure. However, if Jordan and Egypt continue to resist, Washington could explore more aggressive means to get what it wants
Could This Lead to War?
If Trump continues to push his plan, several scenarios could escalate tensions into a broader conflict:
Israel vs. Egypt: If Israel tries to force Gazans into Sinai, Egypt could see it as a violation of its sovereignty, leading to military confrontation.
Jordanian Unrest: A collapse of Jordan’s internal stability could force King Abdullah to take drastic measures, including strengthening military ties with other regional powers.
Wider Middle East Fallout: Iran, Hezbollah, and other actors could use the displacement as a pretext for stepping up hostilities against Israel and its allies.
How Long Can Jordan and Egypt Resist?
Both Jordan and Egypt have strong reasons to oppose Trump’s plan, but they also depend on U.S. financial and military aid. If the Trump administration pushes hard—threatening economic consequences or security cooperation—it could put them in a difficult position. However, resistance is likely to continue unless Washington offers an alternative that does not destabilize the region.
For now, the standoff continues. But if Trump escalates his efforts, the Middle East could be heading toward a dangerous new crisis.
Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan believe they have successfully dissuaded US President Donald Trump from backing a forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and that the US has gotten behind an Egyptian post-war plan for the enclave, a senior Egyptian official told Middle East Eye.
“This will be an Egyptian plan adopted and supported by the Arabs,” the official said. “That is what Trump has agreed to.”
The Egyptian official, speaking to MEE on the condition of anonymity on Tuesday, said King Abdullah II of Jordan’s visit to Washington was critical to convincing Trump to ditch his plan to empty Gaza of Palestinians. Cairo and other Arab states viewed the outcome of Abdullah’s meeting as a win.
“The closed meeting was very good,” the Egyptian official told MEE.
King Abdullah did not confront Trump publicly on his proposal to “take over” the Gaza Strip, but the Egyptian official said the king privately warned Trump his plan would provoke “Islamic extremism” and lead to the collapse of pro-US governments across the region.
