Azerbaijan’s Diplomatic Maneuvers: Balancing India’s Influence in the South Caucasus

In a significant geopolitical development, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and China’s President Xi Jinping signed a declaration of strategic partnership on July 3, 2024. This move has sparked widespread analysis and speculation among international observers, who see it as a potential strategic counterbalance to India’s increasing support for Armenia.

The South Caucasus region, already marked by its complex alliances and historical conflicts, now finds itself at the center of a new geopolitical chessboard. Azerbaijan, having recently emerged from the protracted and bloody Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is navigating a delicate post-conflict environment. The intricate web of alliances sees Pakistan, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, reciprocating support during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, while also participating in a non-official trilateral alliance with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

India’s growing ties with Armenia, underscored by its arms sales to Yerevan, have raised concerns in Baku. These actions could be interpreted as part of India’s broader strategy to counter Pakistan, thus affecting Azerbaijan’s security calculations. Observers suggest that Azerbaijan might be seeking to counterbalance this influence by aligning more closely with China, a powerful ally of Pakistan.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents Azerbaijan with significant economic opportunities, enhancing its role as a crucial transit hub connecting Asia and Europe. In turn, Azerbaijan’s strategic location and energy resources present valuable assets for China’s expansive economic and geopolitical ambitions. This partnership could offer Azerbaijan not just economic benefits but also a strategic counterweight to India’s support for Armenia.

While the exact motivations behind Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with China are multifaceted, it is plausible that Baku sees this partnership as a way to bolster its regional standing and security in response to India’s moves. This evolving dynamic reflects the interconnected nature of regional conflicts and alliances, where actions in one part of the globe resonate far beyond their immediate geography.

For India, the challenge now lies in recalibrating its approach. New Delhi must navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape carefully, balancing its strategic interests with Armenia while managing the broader implications of an emboldened China-Azerbaijan-Pakistan axis. This complex interplay underscores the intricate chessboard of international relations where every move is countered by another, often from unexpected quarters.

Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with China is a significant diplomatic maneuver with potential implications for the balance of power in the South Caucasus. While it is not certain that this move is directly aimed at countering India’s influence, the timing and context suggest that it could be a calculated step in response to the shifting geopolitical landscape. As alliances evolve and new partnerships emerge, the delicate equilibrium in this volatile region remains precarious, demanding astute diplomacy and strategic foresight from all involved parties.